Place your bets everyone! According to JP Morgan’s quant models, England will win the World Cup. It’s also interesting to note that the model predicts England to be the winner even though it determines that the strongest team is Brazil.
Then again, before you go running off to your local bookie, remind yourself that JP Morgan came up with RiskMetrics to model Value at Risk – which is widely thought to precipitate the financial crisis once firms relied too much on it.
It’ll be interesting to take a look at how their World Cup model works though, and to see how accurate it really is. Okay back to studying about non-central distributions now – fun!